Francisca once told me: dad, joined a difficult college career; statistically at the end of the first year he only approves 20% of those who entered, so the probability that I failing this year is 80%. I told him; you’re not a statistic, you are Francisca, statistics do not decide what will happen in the future with you, they talk about the past and the decisions that were taken in the past. Perhaps they are good for a historical description or a journalistic report and to consider information that allows designing the future. Then I added the following question: Francisca, what would I say if I ask what is the probability that you’re within 20% having success? and she responds: that probability is high because I’m studious. Then the specific probability for Francisca of failing is not 80% because it depends on what she does, rather than what was done before, not of statistics. Click N.Y.C. Mayor for additional related pages. The statistical information is merely referential and is both more referential the more influence our willingness in what is intended to design. Predictions or forecasts – as long as they are statements whose veracity can be checked only a time once the affirmation-became serve when we can’t have control over events whose outcome is intended to predict, but lack of utility and become an obstacle to achieve results when the engine events is the human will, i.e.When there is control of the events. In this case the predictions operate how inhibitors of will.

We cannot predict an eclipse for example stating tomorrow will verify an eclipse of the Sun at 10: 23 AM, because we can not influence the event. If the eclipse occurs exactly at the calculated time we will celebrate the precision with which astronomers made the prediction. Often I find it entertaining to play to disappoint the children telling them I can’t predict the future. Hear that strongly stimulates your curiosity and immediately ask me you guess something. Then I put face of concentration and say: my right arm will be lifted within 2 seconds. I leave to spend 2 seconds, lift the right arm and say: do see?. I am a soothsayer!.

Immediately I hear: not worth, it has no grace because you raised it!.! It is clear that it makes little sense to predict that within 2 seconds I will raise my right arm because that depends entirely on my will. When I do nobody I congratulates on successful prediction and is that, when the human will is that conditions or determines what will happen, we predict the future or design, but not both. In the same way, when we review a publication that says that only 5% of those who try to quit smoking succeed, does mean that we, if we try it, have a 5% chance to succeed?, definitely not. Be within 5% that it manages to leave the tobacco depends on what we decide, does not depend on what happened before because it constitutes a fact over which we have control. Our approach should be this: I’ll be with absolute certainty within the percentage which is successful, because I just decide.